A Mixed Message for Ferrer in Primary Voting Patterns - New York Times
The New York Times
September 25, 2005
A Mixed Message for Ferrer in Primary Voting Patterns
By SAM ROBERTS
Fernando Ferrer won the mayoral nomination by doing better among non-Hispanic whites and West Indian blacks than he did four years ago, but fewer voters from his Hispanic base turned out than in 2001, analyses of voting patterns from the Sept. 13 Democratic primary show.
But the analyses, conducted by The New York Times and by John H. Mollenkopf, director of the Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York Graduate Center, suggest that while Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg led in polls before the primary and still leads, his margin - 14 percentage points in the latest poll - is bound to shrink.
One reason is that white Roman Catholics, many of them presumably Bloomberg Democrats, stayed home disproportionately in the primary. And if the mayor continues to look like a shoo-in, his more tepid supporters may not vote in November either.
Also, some Bloomberg Democrats in this lopsidedly Democratic city, eager to send a message to Republicans in Washington and Albany, might begrudgingly switch to Mr. Ferrer.
On Primary Day, news organizations did not invest in exit polls, in which people who identify themselves by race, ethnicity, ideology, income and other categories say how they voted. Another, less precise, way of measuring is to analyze the vote in relatively homogenous Assembly districts or election districts and combine that data with pre-election polls and the results of past races.
Only about 450,000 Democrats voted on Sept. 13, when Mr. Ferrer eked out his primary victory, compared with more than 785,000 in 2001 when he forced Mark Green into a runoff. Mr. Ferrer won the nomination this year with the votes of only 7 percent of enrolled Democrats, and they split largely along ethnic and racial lines.
While C. Virginia Fields, who is black, eroded Mr. Ferrer's vote among blacks compared with 2001, Mr. Ferrer appeared to do better among blacks beyond Mrs. Fields's Harlem base than he had four years ago.
"But the reason he hits 40 percent is he gets 25 percent of the white vote," said Jef Pollock, Mr. Ferrer's pollster. In 2001, exit polls said Mr. Ferrer got about 7 percent of the white vote in the first round and 14 percent in the runoff, but "my rough election district analysis is he got 12 percent last time and 25 percent this time," Mr. Pollock said.
In predominantly white Forest Hills, Queens, for example, Mr. Mollenkopf found that Mr. Ferrer trailed Representative Anthony Weiner, but received 17 percent of the vote, compared with 10 percent four years ago. On the West Side, which is mostly white and liberal, Mr. Ferrer doubled his share of the vote.
In 2001, Mr. Bloomberg carried Forest Hills and nearly won the West Side, so any potential inroads by Mr. Ferrer could prove costly in a close election.
"The most Irish and Italian areas of Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights were less likely to have voted in 2005 than in 2001," Mr. Mollenkopf said. "Weiner didn't get them to the polls."
He also said that the lower turnout this year might have reflected the absence of a non-Hispanic white Catholic in the race, and the failure of some Bloomberg Democrats to vote.
Mr. Pollock, the Ferrer campaign pollster, suggested that many of those potential Bloomberg voters might stay home in November, too.
"Maybe those voters in Bay Ridge, in Throgs Neck and Maspeth won't be that thrilled either in the general election," he said. "It's not like Rudy Giuliani. I don't believe they are going to come out en masse for Michael Bloomberg."
In November, Mr. Ferrer's chief challenge may be how to woo the blacks, Hispanics and Asians who are projected to constitute a majority of New York City's electorate for the first time without alienating whites, whom he also needs.
"Ferrer's strength is the Bronx and Latino areas, and his people make no bones about it," said William T. Cunningham, a senior adviser to Mr. Bloomberg. "They need a big turnout in the Latino community. That's what they're targeting."
Mr. Mollenkopf said that compared with other groups, the Hispanic turnout in the Democratic primary was "pretty good, and maybe even a little bit better."
In one of the city's most heavily Hispanic Assembly districts, which covers the South Bronx, Mr. Ferrer won overwhelmingly on Primary Day, according to preliminary returns, with about 5,720 votes, compared with 765 for Ms. Fields. Mr. Weiner and Gifford Miller divided the remaining 524 votes. In roughly the same district in 2001, though, he got 11,249 votes.
"Ultimately, the Hispanic and African-American vote are generally going to line up behind him," Mr. Mollenkopf said. "The question is how fervent and how complete is that support."
Similarly, Mr. Bloomberg cannot win without wooing as many as one-third of Hispanic voters and perhaps even more blacks, in addition to whites. He is counting on the fact that Dominicans and other Hispanics don't necessarily vote as a bloc with Mr. Ferrer's fellow Puerto Ricans. Mr. Ferrer did not do as well in Washington Heights, with its large Dominican population, compared with some other largely Hispanic districts.
While Mr. Ferrer is counting on the hospital workers' union and other labor support to get out the vote, Mr. Bloomberg also has a sophisticated Election Day operation to galvanize his supporters, as he did four years ago.
Mr. Bloomberg builds on his incumbency (first-term mayoral incumbents have been deposed only twice in the past half-century), his willingness to spend $100 million or more to keep his job, and the fact that most New Yorkers seem satisfied (if not necessarily thrilled) with his performance as mayor. Still, the federal problems in responding to Hurricane Katrina, and even the presence of Justice Antonin Scalia as grand marshal in next month's Columbus Day parade, may remind Bloomberg Democrats that Mr. Bloomberg is indeed a Republican, if nominally, and that his defeat might be viewed as a slap at the national Republican Party.
Three additional factors might help broaden Mr. Ferrer's appeal, but it's difficult to say how much. The Rev. Al Sharpton's belated endorsement could motivate black voters. And, like Mr. Guiliani, Mr. Ferrer is Roman Catholic; Roman Catholics constituted more than one-third of the voters in 2001. Finally, he is the first Democratic mayoral nominee since 1973 who is not from Manhattan.
* Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
Link to Article Source
September 25, 2005
A Mixed Message for Ferrer in Primary Voting Patterns
By SAM ROBERTS
Fernando Ferrer won the mayoral nomination by doing better among non-Hispanic whites and West Indian blacks than he did four years ago, but fewer voters from his Hispanic base turned out than in 2001, analyses of voting patterns from the Sept. 13 Democratic primary show.
But the analyses, conducted by The New York Times and by John H. Mollenkopf, director of the Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York Graduate Center, suggest that while Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg led in polls before the primary and still leads, his margin - 14 percentage points in the latest poll - is bound to shrink.
One reason is that white Roman Catholics, many of them presumably Bloomberg Democrats, stayed home disproportionately in the primary. And if the mayor continues to look like a shoo-in, his more tepid supporters may not vote in November either.
Also, some Bloomberg Democrats in this lopsidedly Democratic city, eager to send a message to Republicans in Washington and Albany, might begrudgingly switch to Mr. Ferrer.
On Primary Day, news organizations did not invest in exit polls, in which people who identify themselves by race, ethnicity, ideology, income and other categories say how they voted. Another, less precise, way of measuring is to analyze the vote in relatively homogenous Assembly districts or election districts and combine that data with pre-election polls and the results of past races.
Only about 450,000 Democrats voted on Sept. 13, when Mr. Ferrer eked out his primary victory, compared with more than 785,000 in 2001 when he forced Mark Green into a runoff. Mr. Ferrer won the nomination this year with the votes of only 7 percent of enrolled Democrats, and they split largely along ethnic and racial lines.
While C. Virginia Fields, who is black, eroded Mr. Ferrer's vote among blacks compared with 2001, Mr. Ferrer appeared to do better among blacks beyond Mrs. Fields's Harlem base than he had four years ago.
"But the reason he hits 40 percent is he gets 25 percent of the white vote," said Jef Pollock, Mr. Ferrer's pollster. In 2001, exit polls said Mr. Ferrer got about 7 percent of the white vote in the first round and 14 percent in the runoff, but "my rough election district analysis is he got 12 percent last time and 25 percent this time," Mr. Pollock said.
In predominantly white Forest Hills, Queens, for example, Mr. Mollenkopf found that Mr. Ferrer trailed Representative Anthony Weiner, but received 17 percent of the vote, compared with 10 percent four years ago. On the West Side, which is mostly white and liberal, Mr. Ferrer doubled his share of the vote.
In 2001, Mr. Bloomberg carried Forest Hills and nearly won the West Side, so any potential inroads by Mr. Ferrer could prove costly in a close election.
"The most Irish and Italian areas of Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights were less likely to have voted in 2005 than in 2001," Mr. Mollenkopf said. "Weiner didn't get them to the polls."
He also said that the lower turnout this year might have reflected the absence of a non-Hispanic white Catholic in the race, and the failure of some Bloomberg Democrats to vote.
Mr. Pollock, the Ferrer campaign pollster, suggested that many of those potential Bloomberg voters might stay home in November, too.
"Maybe those voters in Bay Ridge, in Throgs Neck and Maspeth won't be that thrilled either in the general election," he said. "It's not like Rudy Giuliani. I don't believe they are going to come out en masse for Michael Bloomberg."
In November, Mr. Ferrer's chief challenge may be how to woo the blacks, Hispanics and Asians who are projected to constitute a majority of New York City's electorate for the first time without alienating whites, whom he also needs.
"Ferrer's strength is the Bronx and Latino areas, and his people make no bones about it," said William T. Cunningham, a senior adviser to Mr. Bloomberg. "They need a big turnout in the Latino community. That's what they're targeting."
Mr. Mollenkopf said that compared with other groups, the Hispanic turnout in the Democratic primary was "pretty good, and maybe even a little bit better."
In one of the city's most heavily Hispanic Assembly districts, which covers the South Bronx, Mr. Ferrer won overwhelmingly on Primary Day, according to preliminary returns, with about 5,720 votes, compared with 765 for Ms. Fields. Mr. Weiner and Gifford Miller divided the remaining 524 votes. In roughly the same district in 2001, though, he got 11,249 votes.
"Ultimately, the Hispanic and African-American vote are generally going to line up behind him," Mr. Mollenkopf said. "The question is how fervent and how complete is that support."
Similarly, Mr. Bloomberg cannot win without wooing as many as one-third of Hispanic voters and perhaps even more blacks, in addition to whites. He is counting on the fact that Dominicans and other Hispanics don't necessarily vote as a bloc with Mr. Ferrer's fellow Puerto Ricans. Mr. Ferrer did not do as well in Washington Heights, with its large Dominican population, compared with some other largely Hispanic districts.
While Mr. Ferrer is counting on the hospital workers' union and other labor support to get out the vote, Mr. Bloomberg also has a sophisticated Election Day operation to galvanize his supporters, as he did four years ago.
Mr. Bloomberg builds on his incumbency (first-term mayoral incumbents have been deposed only twice in the past half-century), his willingness to spend $100 million or more to keep his job, and the fact that most New Yorkers seem satisfied (if not necessarily thrilled) with his performance as mayor. Still, the federal problems in responding to Hurricane Katrina, and even the presence of Justice Antonin Scalia as grand marshal in next month's Columbus Day parade, may remind Bloomberg Democrats that Mr. Bloomberg is indeed a Republican, if nominally, and that his defeat might be viewed as a slap at the national Republican Party.
Three additional factors might help broaden Mr. Ferrer's appeal, but it's difficult to say how much. The Rev. Al Sharpton's belated endorsement could motivate black voters. And, like Mr. Guiliani, Mr. Ferrer is Roman Catholic; Roman Catholics constituted more than one-third of the voters in 2001. Finally, he is the first Democratic mayoral nominee since 1973 who is not from Manhattan.
* Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
Link to Article Source
This entry was posted
on Sunday, September 25, 2005 at 10:10.
